So basically what happened was last week when I was showing a property to my clients, they asked me, “Pete, where do you think the market is heading in 2025? Is now a good time to buy?” It’s a question I’ve been getting a lot lately, and with good reason. With recent interest rate cuts and changing market conditions, many homeowners and potential buyers in Quebec are wondering what’s next.
The Canadian real estate market is showing strong signs of momentum building as we move further into 2025. According to the latest forecasts, we’re looking at 77% of Canadian markets becoming either seller’s markets (44%) or balanced markets (33%) this year. That’s a significant shift from what we’ve experienced in the past couple of years.
What does this mean for Quebec homeowners? Simply put, we’re entering what experts are calling a “window of opportunity” – especially for those looking to make a move before competition intensifies. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has recently revised their predictions upward, now forecasting an 8.6% increase in residential property sales for 2025, with the national average home price expected to climb 4.7% to $722,221.
But the story isn’t the same everywhere. Each region has its own unique factors at play, and Quebec’s market has always danced to its own rhythm compared to places like Vancouver or Toronto.
One of the biggest factors influencing our local market has been the recent interest rate cuts. The Bank of Canada has made two consecutive 50-basis-point reductions, and this is having a real impact on buyer confidence. What I’m seeing with my clients is that a mortgage rate below 4.0% with a 30-year amortization can bring monthly payments close to pre-pandemic levels.
This matters because over 1 million Canadian mortgages are up for renewal in 2025, many of them originally secured at much lower rates. For Quebec homeowners facing renewal, these recent cuts are providing some much-needed relief.
The housing supply shortage continues to be a significant factor. Canada as a whole needs an estimated 5 million extra units by 2030 to meet demand, and Quebec is feeling this pressure too. Currently, the national inventory sits at 4.2 months worth of housing stock – below the long-term average of 5 months.
In our local market, I’ve noticed that homes with income potential are gaining popularity as buyers look to offset rising costs. Whether it’s a finished basement apartment or a duplex, these properties are often receiving multiple offers, even in areas where other homes might sit longer.
While the national aggregate home prices are projected to increase 6% year-over-year to $856,692 by Q4 2025, with single-family detached homes expected to rise 7% to $900,833, Quebec’s numbers tell a different story.
The Montreal area remains more affordable than Toronto or Vancouver, with price increases typically more moderate. This creates an interesting situation where our market can offer better value while still providing healthy appreciation for homeowners.
If you’re considering buying in 2025, my professional advice is to consider moving sooner rather than later. With sales activity in Q4 jumping 12% year-over-year nationally, and new mortgage rules increasing price caps for insured mortgages from $1M to $1.5M, there are several factors making buying more accessible right now.
The extended 30-year amortization options for first-time buyers and new-build purchases is another advantage that wasn’t available before. Many of my clients are using this to enter the market with more manageable monthly payments.
Don’t wait for the traditional spring market – which experts predict could start as early as March this year. Winter 2025 is already showing unusual activity levels, breaking from traditional seasonal slowdowns.
If you’re considering selling, the current market conditions are increasingly favorable. With 44% of Canadian markets forecasted to be seller’s markets in 2025, the power dynamic is shifting.
For homeowners who have been waiting for the right time, the combination of increasing prices (4.7% nationally) and higher sales volume (8.6% increase) suggests improved conditions for sellers compared to recent years.
However, different property types are performing differently. Traditional single-family homes remain most popular and show strongest growth potential, while the condo market recovery is expected to take longer due to excess supply in some areas.
There are some potential headwinds worth mentioning. The threat of tariffs from the U.S. is creating market uncertainty, causing some buyers to hesitate. This trade disruption is partially counteracting the positive effects of falling interest rates.
Additionally, building costs and supply chain disruptions continue to constrain new housing supply, which could further impact prices in areas with high demand and limited inventory.
The Quebec market, particularly around Montreal, continues to offer relative affordability compared to other major Canadian centers. With average Canadian home prices having risen almost 200% over the past 20 years, our region provides better value while still participating in the national trend of appreciation.
For 2025, I’m seeing a market that favors decisive action. Buyers who are prepared with down payments and pre-approvals will be in the best position to take advantage of this window before increased competition drives prices higher.
If you’re facing a mortgage renewal this year, now is an excellent time to review your options given the recent rate cuts. And if you’re considering selling, the increasing buyer activity suggests a more receptive market than we’ve seen in recent years.
To sum it up, the 2025 market isn’t just about timing – it’s about being prepared. Don’t stress, just assess. And if you have questions about your specific situation in the Quebec real estate market, don’t be shy to reach out. I’m always here to help you navigate these changes and make the best decision for your unique circumstances.
📍 Related: What does the Bank of Canada’s rate cut mean for the housing market?
Every home has the right buyer—sometimes, it’s just about making the right adjustments.
If you have questions about why your home isn’t selling or want an expert’s opinion on market conditions in Quebec, reach out today!
📞 Call Peter Thompson: (438) 500-8344
📩 Email: peter@peterthompson.ca
Peter Thompson is a Quebec real estate expert specializing in helping homeowners navigate complex market conditions. Contact him today for a personalized home sale strategy.
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